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A cluster of suburbs the housing boom forgot — where prices have flatlined for a decade — has become an unexpected lifeline for priced-out buyers.
While national home values have soared since 2014, hitting a fresh record high of $853,000 across all dwellings in Brisbane in August, a shift in housing preferences and subsequent drop in demand has created a market stalemate in pockets of the capital city and regions.
First-home buyers and investors are swooping on these underperforming suburbs, which include inner-city unit hotspots where new construction has kept a cap on prices.
A one-bedroom unit in Brisbane City sold for $470,000
Exclusive PropTrack data has revealed 27 house and unit markets where prices are either lower, or only marginally higher, than ten years ago.
For units, the list included seven inner-city Brisbane suburbs, 12 in the Townsville region, and one in Ipswich.
The data shows the price of a typical Brisbane City unit climbed by a modest 13.5 per cent or $70,000 over the past decade, to $590,000.
It’s translated to an impressive annual yield of 6.6 per cent for investors, with landlords pulling in median weekly rent of $700 — up 15 per cent this year.
A four-bedroom house in East Innisfail sold for $470,000
Dutton Park, Bowen Hills, and Kelvin Grove also offered affordable buying, with apartment values just $35,000-$39,000 more than in 2014.
Median weekly rent for units in those suburbs was $520, $590, and $570 respectively.
The largest drops were recorded in the far north Queensland suburbs of Thuringowa Central, Railway Estate, Idalia, and Cranbrook, where prices fell between 14.5 and 28.1 per cent — or up to $109,500.
Townsville also dominated the much-smaller selection for houses with four suburbs named, plus one each on the Gold Coast, Logan, and Cairns — Willow Vale, Park Ridge, and East Innisfail.
PropTrack economist Cameron Kusher
Willow Vale on the northern Gold Coast notched up the biggest price fall of 12.5 per cent or $109,000.
PropTrack director of research Cameron Kusher said the capital city suburbs where prices were cheaper than in 2014 tended to be areas with a higher concentration of new housing construction.
“There has been a high volume of new apartments over the last decade and the volume of stock has kept a lid on prices,” Mr Kusher said.
“High density is not going to be for everyone. The risk with delivering a high volume of housing stock is that some of it could end up being of low quality.”
“Ultimately, prices rise because there is too much demand and not enough supply so when it’s the opposite it can moderate prices.”
A three-bedroom, two-bathroom townhouse in Kirwan, Townsville sold for $340,000
But the very small number of areas where home seekers could still snap up properties at relatively low cost reflected the critical state of the housing market.
“Development is needed to slow price growth. We need to replicate some of what has been going on in these markets and build more in other areas,” Mr Kusher said.
“We can see from the level of demand for houses over units that medium density is more palatable for most people. It’s that midway point between a home with some land component and a low-rise unit.”
Brisbane buyers’ agent Lauren Jones said competition for well-located apartments had intensified over the June quarter. She said entry-level priced units were snapped up fastest as the cost-of-living crisis pushed more buyers into this bracket.
Brisbane buyers’ agent Lauren Jones
“Buyers are getting pushed out of the house market and moving into the apartment and townhouse market due to the price point and budget constraints.
“Apartments are the entry level for a first home buyer and offer low-maintenance living for downsizers.”
A separate data set shared by Ray White shows the gap between Brisbane’s house and unit markets had widened considerably, with an apartment bought for $500,000 10 years ago worth 53 per cent more today, while a house bought for the same price would be worth double.
“It is not necessarily the case that houses do better than apartments,” Ray White economist Nerida Consibee said.
“At a fundamental level, it holds that land holds value and therefore owning it should yield better returns.
“However, it depends on where that land is located, well-serviced land in highly liveable areas being worth far more than areas that are less so,” she said.
A four-bedroom, two-bathroom house in Willow Vale on the Gold Coast sold for $770,000
PropTrack’s capital city average figures show Greater Brisbane house prices climbed a whopping 83.4 per cent since 2014, to a median of $850,000, while apartment values were up 35.7 per cent to $565,000.
Those surges were bolstered by the pandemic boom, with PropTrack’s latest Home Price Index showing overall dwelling prices across Brisbane and regional Queensland surged by 72.2 and 72.9 per cent respectively since March 2020.
Since that time, unit prices in Brisbane have grown faster than houses, up 16.85 per cent to a median of $663,000, compared to 10.86 per cent to $665,000 in regional Queensland.
Ray White Group chief economist Nerida Conisbee. Picture: Supplied
Many of the regional markets where prices were below 2014 levels lacked economic diversity and may have seen a reduction in available jobs, according to Mr Kusher.
“Mining towns are a prime example,” he said. “There are no reasons to move out there once there are no jobs.
“This can happen in other regional markets that are dependent on one industry. When times are good, they’re really good, but once that industry struggles the local economy suffers.”
Mr Kusher said the high concentration of suburbs with 10-year price falls in Townsville was a, “reflection of real estate values in the city going nowhere for a decade”.
But the price advantage had made the northern centre a recent favourite with interstate investors, resulting in a 21.48 per cent jump in the Townsville median price to $464,000 for houses and units combined.
Anthony Waldron, CEO of Mortgage Choice
Urbex Realty general manager Craig Covavich said families were relocating from the southern states to build new in the region’s emerging estates, not only for “greater bang for their buck”, but also for the lifestyle.
“Regional markets such as Townsville offer a stable employment base, a relaxed lifestyle and affordable housing,” Mr Covavich said.
“The regions continue to remain more resilient than capital city dwelling markets.”
It comes as research by Mortgage Choice shows 82 per cent of prospective buyers were making compromises in response to the lack of affordable housing in the broader property market.
The national lender’s Home Loan Report shows 60 per cent of buyers were planning to buy in a regional area or further out from the city, while 35 per cent were settling on an apartment instead of a house.
Mortgage Choice CEO Anthony Waldron said rising home prices had driven up the average loan submission size in Queensland by 13.8 per cent, or $554,842, over the past three months.
“Despite a challenging economic climate and reduced borrowing capacity, in the June quarter the national average loan size continued to remain well above 2023 levels,” Mr Waldron said.
“As a result, buyers are needing to compromise on the location and type of property they plan to buy.”